Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, compared with 15.39 per cent in August, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a decline in average food prices during the month.
The figures, contained in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Thursday, October 15, showed that headline inflation slowed by 0.76 percentage points.
Food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year, while the monthly food inflation rate dropped below zero, indicating that average food prices were lower in September than in August.
The report also showed that Nigeria’s annual headline inflation rate was 6.35 percentage points below the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.
Despite the decline, the figures do not mean that the general cost of living has returned to previous levels. They indicate that prices are increasing more slowly than before.
According to the NBS, the Consumer Price Index rose marginally to 146.38 in September from 146.30 in August.
The CPI tracks changes in the average prices of goods and services purchased by households and is used to measure inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.06 per cent from 0.71 per cent in August, representing a reduction of 0.65 percentage points.
Explaining the figures, the bureau stated:
“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 146.38 in September 2026, reflecting a 0.08-point increase from the preceding month (146.30).
“In September 2026, the Headline inflation rate stood at 14.63%, down from 15.39% in August 2026 and stood at 20.98% in the same month of the preceding year (September 2025).
“Looking at the movement, the September 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 6.35% compared to the September 2025 (20.98%) Headline inflation rate.
“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in September 2026 was 0.06%, which was 0.65% lower than the rate recorded in August 2026 (0.71%).
“This means that in September 2026, the rate of in-crease in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2026,” the NBS said.
The reduction in food inflation was one of the notable developments in the September report.
While annual food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent, compared with 20.16 per cent in September 2025, the month-on-month rate fell to -1.55 per cent.
This was a reduction of 2.57 percentage points from the 1.02 per cent recorded in August.
The bureau attributed the monthly decline to changes in the prices of several food products, including local rice, white maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, tomatoes, Irish potatoes, okra, green beans, dried green peas and plantains.
A negative monthly food inflation rate means that the average prices of items in the food basket declined during the period. It does not necessarily mean that every food item became cheaper or that prices were lower than a year earlier.
The figures also revealed differences between inflation in urban and rural areas.
In urban communities, annual inflation stood at 15.64 per cent in September, while the monthly rate increased from 0.28 per cent in August to 0.53 per cent.
This indicates that although urban inflation was lower on an annual basis, prices in cities continued to rise during September at a slightly faster monthly pace.
The 12-month average urban inflation rate was 15.90 per cent, compared with 28.48 per cent in September 2025.
Rural areas recorded a lower annual inflation rate of 12.46 per cent.
Unlike urban communities, rural areas experienced a decline in average prices during the month, with monthly inflation falling to -0.89 per cent from 1.79 per cent in August.
The 12-month average rural inflation rate also declined to 15.32 per cent from 25.67 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
For food inflation, the average annual rate covering the 12 months ending September 2026 stood at 15.72 per cent, compared with 28.37 per cent for the corresponding period ending September 2025.
The difference represents a decline of 12.65 percentage points based on the published figures.
The distinction between annual and monthly inflation is important in understanding what the latest report means for Nigerian households.
Annual inflation compares current prices with those recorded in the same month of the previous year, while monthly inflation measures price changes between two consecutive months.
Consequently, the decline in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent indicates slower annual price increases, not an overall reduction in consumer prices.
The negative monthly food inflation rate, on the other hand, shows that average food prices fell between August and September.
The September figures therefore reflect a moderation in inflation, with the most noticeable monthly price reductions recorded in food items and rural areas.
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